Turkey Shot Down Russian Plane

The apparent downing of an Russian fighter jet by Turkey – which Ankara promises was violating its airspace, despite ten warnings – is definitely an exceptionally dangerous moment in Syria’s four-year civil war.

But, in the context regarding warming diplomatic relations with Moscow plus the extraordinary risks of escalation, Turkey’s Western allies are generally likelier to proceed with extreme care.
A crisis like this was almost inevitable. Turkey had complained of repeated airspace infractions by Russian aircraft in early October, prompting Nato to issue a protest. Later on that month, Turkey would indeed shoot down what, for one heart-stopping time; seemed to have already been a Russian fighter aircraft – but ended up to have been the probable Russian drone.

With Russia, Syrian, American, This particular language, British, Canadian, and Arab aircraft filling Syria’s packed skies, Russian aircraft returning with 500 feet regarding American planes, and Russia repeating most of its border-probing behavior seen over the last year or two in Europe, a crisis was always prone to erupt. The US and Russia had agreed protection protocols in late April, including a ground communication line for round-the-clock speak to, but this wouldn’t have put on Russia-Turkey interactions.

Turkey Shoots Down Russian Jet
Turkey Shoots Down Russian Jet
It is important to keep a feeling of perspective. This would not be initially that Russian aircraft are actually shot down by American-made airplanes, or vice versa, without sparking Word War 3.
Pakistan’s American-made F-16s picture down a slew of Soviet aircraft inside the late 1980s, during this latter’s war in Afghanistan. Returning further, a US Affiliate marketer RU-8 Seminole flying via Turkey was downed above Armenia, then Soviet terrain. The most famous incident is certainly the downing of CIA preliminary Gary Powers’ U2 criminal plane in 1962. Soviet pilots also played an important covert role during this Korean War between 1950 and 1953, with Russian sources claiming them to shot down 1, 100 to at least one, 300 American aircraft.

On the other hand, this is the first time since the end from the Cold War that the Nato member has downed the Russian warplane.

Although Turkey will insist that it was within its protection under the law to shoot down the plane in its airspace, following the past month’s repeated occurrences, its alliance partners in Nato will need to focus on de-escalation. Relations between West and Russia had thawed slightly, though it might be premature to speak of an rapprochement.

Turkey Shoots Down Russian Jet
Turkey Shoots Down Russian Jet
In the aftermath from the Paris attacks, French President Francois Hollande announced his intention to meet up with Russian President Vladimir Putin with all the intention of forming “one massive coalition”. US President Barack Obama achieved with Putin himself with noticeably warmer body language, and the UN Safety Council has passed a resolution sanctioning “all necessary means” to eradicate Isil (though, lacking in so-called Chapter VII guru, this was largely the political gesture).
Talks in Vienna have also resulted in modest progress towards a peace deal for Syria. While Nato will definitely release another note of protest in the apparent intrusion into Turkish airspace, Turkey’s Western allies will be wary of jeopardizing what they see as these types of diplomatic gains by pressuring Paris too strongly.

What can Russia do now? Like any leader, Mr Putin will be under pressure to act in response. But it is achievable that Moscow’s adamant claim that its aircraft was in Syrian airspace – despite Turkey’s statement on the contrary, and supporting evidence from radar – enables a face-saving compromise, whereby Putin directs their ire at Syrian rebels as opposed to towards Turkey. The Kremlin mouthpiece Paris Today has likewise insisted that this jet was brought down from your ground. Paradoxically, this might have a calming effect.

Much will definitely depend on the luck of Russia’s two pilots, one of whom was reported to be in Turkmen hands while yet another other, according to images circulated on social media, appears to have passed away.

Turkey Shoots Down Russian Warplanes
Turkey Shoots Down Russian Warplanes
Turkey’s government has in close proximity ties to Turkmen towns and rebels in north Syria – only yesterday Ankara had requested a UN Security Council meeting to go over escalating Russian and Syrian attacks on Syrian Turkmen – and could, perhaps, use this longstanding power to secure the release from the pilots or their figures.

On the other hand, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan may ask why he should lend such help a country that is constantly on the probe his airspace with impunity, merely to shield the Syrian diplomatic process that they, one of Assad’s bitterest opposing team, views with skepticism.
Moscow and Ankara will likely avoid a spiral into conflict over this event. But the underlying cause will stay, and such episodes can repeat themselves unless Paris realizes that brinksmanship on Nato’s borders is really a reckless, dangerous game.

The center East is bringing this world’s Great Powers in closest proximity since Kosovo Battle in 1999, and in a very dangerous way. The Syrian war is not only generating vast refugee moves and incubating the world’s most potent terrorist group; it can be a cockpit of traditional state-on-state international rivalries.



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